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Five categories are live. Every number is cited and dated, and the reading of each segment comes from the receptivity evidence rather than from opinion.

19,000 vs 50,000

Boiler Upgrade Scheme installs by end of 2023 against the government’s own prediction – £7,500 grants, demand still didn’t materialise

Green But Not Heard, 2026

Last verified 30 Aug 2026

4×

Electricity costs over four times gas per kWh (26.3p vs 6.3p, late 2025) – the spark gap that hides the efficiency win

Green But Not Heard, 2026

Last verified 30 Aug 2026

89%

Awareness of heat pumps among people who don’t have one

Nesta/YouGov, 2025

Last verified 30 Aug 2026

Around the world – proof it isn’t the technology
1 in 3

Norwegian homes running a heat pump – the world’s highest adoption, in a colder country than ours. Pricing signals fixed, upfront barriers removed.

Green But Not Heard, 2026

75%

Heat pump share of Dutch newbuilds; 752,000 installed by 2024, halfway to their 2030 target

Green But Not Heard, 2026

Where the category sits

Adoption is early and the curve has barely begun its rise. That is a marketing position, not a technology problem.

2.513.5343416STILL TO WINTHE CHASMMoore, 1991WE ARE HEREADOPTIONTIME →
Innovators· Early adopters· Early majority· Late majority· Laggards

Rogers, 1962 – solid is behind us, dashed is the job.

Who is open to what – category by category
Progressive ActivistsCost and climate framings both land here – lead with either.
Incrementalist LeftCost, comfort, and social proof all land. The broadest welcome in the country.
Established LiberalsCost, comfort, and a well-made product land; duty framing adds nothing.
Sceptical ScrollersCost, comfort, and social proof land; urgency and alarm push them away.
Rooted PatriotsCost, comfort, and independence land; moral framing and urgency repel.
Traditional ConservativesCost, comfort, independence, and quality land; duty and alarm repel.
Dissenting DisruptorsCost and independence land; duty, alarm, and ‘everyone is doing it’ all repel.
From the book
What the book says

The category’s biggest barrier for combi owners is not disruption but space – the outdoor unit and the hot water cylinder that a cupboard-sized combi never needed (Nesta). Half of UK installs are combis. Add the spark gap – policy costs loaded onto clean electricity rather than gas – and the product is fighting uphill against its own pricing signals. Norway proves the fix is policy, not persuasion alone: fix the signals and the economics do the selling.

Editorial hypothesis
The overlooked play

The distress purchase: boilers die in winter and nobody markets to that moment – the entire category sells planned upgrades to people making emergency decisions.

DIRECTIONAL MODEL – PUBLISHED CATEGORY EVIDENCE, NOT PANEL DATA · v1.0 · SOURCES CITED AND DATED

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